Overdriven! 47 (part 2)

(Editors Note: You can return to part 1 of this article by following this link: http://www.mtgoacademy.com/overdriven-47/)

Meta Madness

Blarg! MTGO had some issues a few weeks back: two “emergency maintenance downtimes” (read crash) on October 10th and 12th. For some of you older players, this probably brought back nightmares of the v2.5 crashes.

After these crashes, Scheduled Event results posted on the What’s Happening page have been few and far between, and there are a great many missing results. Since I only track Modern data, I can’t speak for any of the other formats, but 21 events have gone missing in the past weeks. That’s an entire week’s worth of scheduled Modern events.

I have seen how one or two event results can push a deck in one direction or the other; Jund went from the number-five spot to the number-one spot based on one day’s results! So, I’m going to have to work out a formula to account for that “slop factor”. (S)

First, I’m going to assume that each missing event had at least 16 players. I know some had almost twice that. A 16-player field typically results in one 4-0 and four 3-1 finishes, or five decks.

Next, there’s the number of “missing” events. This number seems to be constantly growing. (M)

Lastly, there’s the total number of decks entered into the meta database. (T)

S = (5M)/T

This gives us the overall slop factor. Now we need to apply that to the individual archetypes, as well. We’ll need to get the number of decks for each archetype (A). Then we simply multiply that by the slop factor to get the slop decks (D) for that archetype.

D = SA

Or, for you math purists: D = (5M/T)A

This means that in any particular archetype, there are at least D more decks that aren’t shown. Key phrase: at least.

But then again, that slop factor represents an assumption that the missing events conformed, in general, to the ongoing meta. But since RTR is now in full swing, several of those missing events could have entirely new archetypes, or gangs of Pods, or some other statistical anomaly. So this whole thing may very well be an exercise in futility, and those slop results may just as well be scattered about higgedly piggedly.

After dealing with that mess for over a week, and getting more and more frustrated with the lack of anything getting done, I’ve scrapped the slop factor-by-archetype model. It’s too much work updating the formula every day for all the archetypes. I’m just going to go the easy route, and lump them all together as a new archetype: Unknown.

The formula for this one is simple: 5M(issing Events). This new archetype is the #1-player in the meta. Which also means any meta information I’m working with, and presenting to you, is next to useless.

Hopefully, WotC will fix this results issue very soon, and we’ll start getting complete results again. If/When this happens, the Unknown will start shrinking as a percentage of the meta. But until this issue is resolved, it can only grow.

Anyway…

By now, the meta has defined itself enough to where it’s easy to tell the Tier 1 decks from the Tier 1.5, Tier 2, and Fringe decks. I use a dividing line of five (4-0) appearances to separate the meta into the “Big Boys” and the “Sandbox”. At some point in the future, this will split again. The next division will occur when decks start hitting twenty (4-0) appearances.

I had planned on doing a detailed breakdown of some of the archetypes here, but I can’t do so in good conscience. Anything detailed would be nothing but detailed guesswork and conjecture. And while I’m not shy about spouting conjecture, it doesn’t work when I’m trying to present hard facts. So until that Unknown percentage drops below 3% of the overall meta, all you’re going to get is vague mumbling.

In fact, if WotC can somehow pull it together and start posting consistent results, I’m going to scrap the first month of the meta information and start all over, calling it the Q4.1 meta.

End of an Era. Well, I just found out why the information hasn’t been forthcoming:

“Sorry for the delay in responding here.

In regards to the recent reduced event coverage, this was a conscious decision by the Wizards R&D team that wasn’t made lightly. Ultimately, we feel that publishing every deck list leads to solving constructed formats far too efficiently, resulting in early stagnation that’s not fun for anybody. We still want to show new deck ideas every day and provide insight into the Magic play environment, but we don’t want metagame development to become purely a function of data analysis. Going forward, we’ll still provide the winning deck lists from all Premier Event top 8′s. We will also show the 4-0 and 3-1 deck lists for one completed Daily Event in each format per day.”

So no more Modern meta analysis for me. Blarg. Blarg. Blarg. Thanks for telling us two weeks after the fact.

CerealKillaz resurrects Dark Wars!

A Legacy of Evil…

Dark Wars is, was, and always will be the premiere multiplayer FFA Player Run Event. In years past, it has always been a Classic event, in both senses of that word. But now, it’s time to dig deeper. Now, we head into the full darkness that is Legacy. This is the dark lair of Force of Will and the Turn 0 kill. This is not the kiddie pool. These are shark-infested waters over a razor sharp reef. The beach is swarming with ANTs. Swim at your peril.

Dark Wars is scheduled to premiere November 7, and will work in a “seasonal” structure. There will be six qualifying events in the season, with the winner of each qualifier getting a 10-ticket prize and a seat at the championship. The championship will offer a 75-ticket prize. This event is sponsored by CerealKillaz.

PT Seattle/Return To Ravnica Rambling

Wednesday

Return To Ravnica prerelease starts tonight on MTGO! Woo hoo! I expect to see Abrupt Decay and Dreg Mangler in Jund and BUG decklists in the Modern Daily Scheduled Events before the weekend is out. I expect Dredge to show up in the SE decklists before next week is done. I fully expect Return To Ravnica to shake things up.

PT Seattle starts in a few days! Woo hoo! I don’t know about you, bubu, but I plan on watching as much of it as I can. Will Valakut be searing players? Will Dredge rise from the grave? Will Infect make the cut? I can’t wait to find out!

Due to scheduling conflicts and lack of resources, I wasn’t able to play in any of the Modern Spotlight events this weekend. I saw that the attendance for these events was superb! I would most likely have run Vex Bomb Bump. Blarg. I was hoping I might be able to make the Saturday one, but no such luck. Oh well. Maybe next time TNMO is Modern, I’ll jump in. I may be hitting up some of the regular SEs next month, as well. I think some of my decks are getting to that level.

Friday

I’m watching the coverage of PT Seattle as best I can while trying to work. I think Nate Price gave a wonderful glimpse into Modern with his Ghosts piece. I’ve seen parts of the games, and will catch them later tonight on replay. One thing I did notice right off from my glances were a lot of Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman running in a lot of Jund. Woo hoo! But it’s only Round 2.

Round 3 coverage had a kid playing against one of the Japanese guns. I thought that was adorable, kids playing in the PT! It’s wonderful seeing the next generation of pros at work.

Draft. Boring. I know there’s lots of people out there that love Limited. Not me. I’m a Constructed guy. ‘Nuff said.

Saturday

More draft. I’ll go putter in the yard ’til that’s done.

Watching Andre Muller is a hoot! “Bring a bird, too!” The running banter between him and Alexander West was so entertaining. Why can’t we have Andre in the booth? He has an opinion on everything!

History being made? Cifka opens Game 1 of Round 12 with a no-land hand has no permanents in play until Turn 4, and wins on Turn 4. Woo hoo! The Second Breakfast (ne Eggs/Second Sunrise) fans are messing their shorts on Twitter. You can’t pay for entertainment like tweeted group nerdgasm!

Naturally, I expect a metric ton of Second Breakfast decks to start showing up in the online SE meta starting tonight. (If I can see them.) Hehehe… These people picking up the deck for the first time will soon find out that Second Breakfast is a very time-intensive deck, and has lost many a match on MTGO from simply running out of time. It’s also a very tricky deck; it’s one of the most complex combos you can play. You have been warned.

A second mass nerdgasm! We’re gonna need a mop; it’s a gusher! Tarmogoyf is getting reprinted in Modern Masters boosters! Woo hoo! Modern Masters boosters means Modern drafts, and GP Las Vegas will be Modern Masters draft. Modern drafts means it’s looking better all the time for Modern to become a FNM format sometime in 2013. Mark my words, it will happen. I’m sure by now you’ve heard all about it, so I’ll spare the hosannas, and watch the ecstatic shuddering of the Modern community instead.

Sunday

Second Breakfast vs Affinity
Scapeshift vs. Restoration
Black Jund vs. Jund
UG Infect vs. Deathrite Jund

Two and a half different and distinct flavors of Jund! Infect! Second Breakfast! Scapeshift! Woo hoo! This is the coolest T8 I have seen in a Modern event in a long time.

Some quick notes on the Jund varieties. If you didn’t read what I wrote above, what I’m calling Black Jund is the version run by David Ochoa with Geralfs Messenger. At BBB, Messenger requires a heavy dose of black in the manabase. Hence the name. The other two are more “traditional” Jund builds. Both with Kitchen Finks, one with Deathrite Shaman. I’m going to have to keep my eyes open on the Jund decks for future meta information, and may have to make a Jund sub-meta.

Eduardo Sajgalik missing his Vendilion Clique trigger in Game 5 of the quarterfinals made me cringe and groan. But oh well. It’s up to him to use the trigger; it doesn’t happen automatically. This is what fatigue and pressure can do to people. I’m sure this will go down in the annals of MTG history as what not to do!

The GP Schedule for the first part of 2013 was announced. Oh, my! Calgary! That’s only a day’s drive! But it’s Standard. (Speaking of Canadian GPs, if anyone wants to sponsor me to GP Toronto… *cackles maniacally*) And GP Las Vegas for Modern Masters Limited! Woo hoo! Also a few more Modern GPs. Things are definitely looking up for the bright and glorious Modern future!

Watching the final (Cifka vs. Watanabe) was, for the most part, dull to tears. I had seen Cifka play in a feature match yesterday, where he opened with a no-land hand, and again in the Quarter- and Semi-finals. And I’d seen Jund games out the yin yang. So after one day, it’s old hat. Gods help me, I couldn’t make it past Game 2. Yes, I admire skillful play, but zzzzzzz… I hear Cifka won Game 5 of the final on a no-land hand again. Balls of steel. I was snoozing.

Well, it was an interesting PT, I must say. We saw Second Breakfast as the breakout star of the event, and a heavy, heavy concentration of Jund. We saw that Infect and Scapeshift are both real decks. We saw some wild builds, like Elemental Combo and Electromancer Storm, both of which have already started appearing in assumed (based on the few results I could see) numbers in the online meta. We had some major announcements that shook the Modern world to its core (Mirrodins Core?).

Overdrive! #66

Overdrive! #67

Eurodrive! #47

Eurodrive! #48

Where Angels Fear To Tread #27

Players: 15(16) (I played to even pairings)
4-0: raf.azevedo
3-1: olaw, Ranth, SeemsLegit, _BIG_BROTHERS_

Players, pairings, and results from WAFTT #27 can be found here.

All decks from WAFTT #26 can be found here.

Where Angels Fear To Tread #28

Players: 15(16) (I played to even pairings)
4-0: romellos
3-1: Nyzzeh, Malum, SeemsLegit

Players, pairings, and results from WAFTT #28 can be found here.

All decks from WAFTT #28 can be found here.

Interesting Tidbits

GP Lyon is coming up quick! Woo hoo! Another Modern GP! I’m sure we’ll see some of the stars from the MTG firmament strut their stuff, and show us what they’ve learned from PT Seattle.

Modern attendance has taken a sharp dive recently. This is most likely due to the online release of RTR and PT Seattle. I expect it to pick up again as we head towards GP Lyon early next month.