Unlocking the Vault # 47: Insight into QT #4

Posted on May 24, 2013 by enderfall

The Classic Quarter League QT #4 is underway. This is the last chance for players to earn a coveted slot in the Classic Invitational on July 20. Already, 20 players have clinched a spot; how many people will make the leap in the 4th Qualifier? 41 Players have registered to find out if they will be one of the final 8 invited.

The metagame for QT #4 is quite interesting. There are 3 archetypes that comprise 20 of the 41 decks in the field, an astonishing 49%! The three archetypes are Affinity, Workshop, and Oath. No other deck had more than 3 entries. Everything other than the 3 Fish decks are a 1- or 2-off. This is something completely different from the previous 3 QT’s. Here is the metagame breakdown:

7 Affinity
7 Oath
6 Workshop
3 “Fish”
2 Dredge
2 GWB Bears
1 Gush Delver
1 Control Slaver
1 Nivmagus Elemental Combo
1 Belcher
1 Stasis Control
1 Helm-Line Combo
1 Storm
1 Jund Aggro
1 Show and Tell
1 Stoneblade
1 Merfolk
1 UB Control

Here are some interesting decks within the field:

Here we find a deck that utilizes one of the new cards from Dragon’s Maze, Ral Zarek. Bactgudz is using a strategy I mentioned in my set review combining Stasis and Ral to lock an opponent out. I particularly like this deck because it is streamlined and can dig for the combo piece. What holds it together is the trio of The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale. An early Tabernacle can hold off creature threats until the board can be stabilized. It’ll be interesting to see how it does against the field.

Here we have a Goblin Welder Workshop deck which could have a significant impact in fighting off other Workshop strategies. I’m a hug fan of the Null Rods in the sideboard, but I’ll get into that later.

Here is the only other deck to use Ral, but also one that uses the new Brainstorm hoser: Notion Thief. This deck also uses Goblin Welder; which Welder deck will perform better?

The last deck I want to highlight is this sweet little Bant Humans deck that thorme has put together. Cavern of Souls has been underutilized in Classic thus far, but this kind of Human Fish shell is perfect for the deck, so long as it doesn’t manage to prevent you from casting your non-creature spells. The creature package is quite diverse including seldom-used Devout Witness along with a powerful Knight of the Reliquary land-tutor package. The sideboard has a techy human to go with Cavern as well in Preacher.

While the field is quite diverse, it is clearly heavily slanted toward the Oath and Workshop-based decks. Due to the urgency some players might have to perform well in this tournament in order to qualify for the Invitational, one could argue that many players chose to play the most powerful deck. Simply put, many people probably thought to themselves: What deck gives me the best chance to finish in the Top 8? Based on the field, it’s evident that most people answered that question by either playing a Workshop-based deck or the most powerful deck against the field that also can fight through Workshops, Oath.

Also factoring into the deck selection and metagame was the Ham on Wry II Tournament, which was held at the beginning of May. I was not able to participate that day, but the Top 8 looked like this:

1. Affinity
2. Oath
3. Affinity
4. Dredge
5. Delver Gush
6. Workshop (Forgemaster Combo)
7. Oath
8. Dredge

That is an awful lot of the same decks that comprise the majority of the QT metagame. Dredge was probably a good meta call in a field that might have been 25% casual decks. Such a large % of casual decks in the metagame likely lead to some “free” early wins against players that didn’t have the right sideboard cards to fight graveyard strategies (a quick glance confirms this to be the case for the 4th place finisher). Other than that, the Top 8 had one non-Oath, non-Workshop based deck. That deck did manage to beat an Affinity deck and 2 Oath decks on its way to drawing into the Top 8 where it eventually lost to Dredge.

Does this mean that the format has been solved? There’s been quite a bit of discussion revolving around this very question over on the ClassicQuarter.com forums. One user even suggested that the community make some self-imposed modifications to the Classic Banned & Restricted List. While it was not feasible with the timeframe leading up to QT #4, the discussion was not without merit. The results and deck choices speak for themselves. Workshop is clearly the best strategy in Classic right now. It turns out that an uncounterable and reusable Black Lotus is really, really good in Classic, perhaps even more than in Vintage due to the absence of the Power 9.

Every deck has to make concessions when they are built to be able to beat Affinity and/or Workshop decks, while Dredge is still out there to keep people honest and take up roughly half of each deck’s sideboard. This limits how much a deck can evolve post-board to adapt to other decks. Still, most people are dedicating 12 or more slots for the Dredge and Workshop strategies. I don’t believe this is healthy.

Doing something about the power of Workshops is easier said than done. It’s easy to look at WotC and feel that they’ve been asleep at the wheel. The last time there was a change to the Classic B&R List was upon the released of Master’s Edition IV, two and a half years ago. No other format has gone as long between changes to the B&R List. Heck, even Standard had a banning in Jace and Stoneforge since the last time Classic saw a change.

It was suggested in the CQ forums to restrict both Brainstorm and Lodestone Golem. Some suggested that Sphere of Resistance or even Mishra’s Workshop itself should be banned, but to hit both Workshop and Affinity while not completely eliminating the deck altogether, Lodestone is the only logical choice (though Tangle Wire might also be a decent option, though no one suggested it). This would help limit the power of both Workshop and Affinity by nearly eliminating their “Sphere and win condition” in 1 while also helping to curtail Blue-based Control decks from running roughshod over the format without Workshop’s most powerful card. Undoubtedly Blue decks would adopt some number of Ponder and/or Preordain as a replacement to Brainstorm, but being that both are sorceries, it would be something deckbuilders would have to account for.

My personal feeling is that restricting Brainstorm would neuter Blue decks too much. Most importantly, it would require players to change their current playing habit, which would initially favor faster combo decks while players adapt. No longer would one be able to keep one land hands without some serious gas included if Brainstorm were restricted. Being able to dig for a key counterspell at instant speed would also be eliminated. Are these fundamental changes that Blue players would consider an appropriate tradeoff for restricting Golem?

I suppose the real problem at hand is that Classic players don’t really have any reliable answer to fend off Workshops without winning the die roll and having either a Force of Will or some acceleration such as Sol Ring. Energy Flux is a great card against Workshop, unfortunately, getting to 3 mana is really tough. Similarly, Hurkyl’s Recall does a good job as well while being slightly more mana efficient. The tradeoff is that it is not a permanent solution, so you better win the turn after you cast it.

What other tools do we have? Kataki, War’s Wage? It’s a fragile white card that has no benefit outside of the Workshop matchup. Serenity? It’s another white card that’s an effective sweeper, but too slow. Seeds of Innocence? I’m not a fan since it costs 3 mana and usually gives your opponent a significant life swing which can only be overcome by massive creatures such as those from an Oath deck. Steel Sabotage/Annul? One for one answers will not beat Affinty, though can be useful against Workshops. Additionally, they are not very useful when on the draw and are negated by an early Chalice of the Void set to one counter. Ancient Grudge is a good option since it can be a two for one, but it requires 3 total mana across 2 different spells and requires 2 difficult colors for Blue decks to cast as they are not commonly splashed together, save for an Oath deck with a rainbow land such as Forbidden Orchard.

Sadly, I don’t foresee Wizards making any changes to Classic between now and the time that Vintage arrives. We simply don’t fire enough events for them to notice what is going on in our format. We are going to have to accept that Workshops are a Tier 1 strategy and needs to be game-planned for much in the way Dredge is post-sideboard.

One of the more effective ways to weaken Affinity and Workshop is to utilize Null Rod. Rod is known for helping budget decks compete in Vintage, but it’s also adept at stopping a lot of the things that Workshop and Affinity players try to do. Metalworker is the choice acceleration out of Workshop decks these days, and spending a turn playing Metalworker leaves an opening for a hate card such as Rod to do its thing. It can also turn off acceleration and stop Kuldotha Forgemaster as well.

Against Affinity, Rod turns off a large portion of their deck. Arcbound Ravager, Skullclamp, Mox Opal and the rest of their non-land acceleration, Springleaf Drum, Steel Overseer, and Memory Jar. Rod leaves the deck with a bunch of 1/1, 1/2, and 2/2 creatures that can easily be dealt with. Better yet, there is nothing they can realistically do to get rid of it either. With that in mind, here is the deck I choose to sleeve up:

You may have noticed that this is the exact same decklist that I was testing prior to QT #3. It was tuned and I wanted to use a deck that offered the power of Workshop with the hate of Null Rod against Affinity and Metalworker Workshop decks.

While Null Rod is a logical card for Workshop to through in their deck, why aren’t more people using it and/or Stony Silence? I think it’s high time that people start brewing Fish decks that use those cards. While you’re at it, throw in a few Leyline of Sanctity in the sideboard for the Oath match-up. If we all join together we can start mounting a comeback to ward of the Big Brown Menace!

enderfall
Clan Magic Eternal
Follow me on Twitter @enderfall

P.S. – This week I won’t be available to respond to anyone’s comments on MTGO Academy, but if you want to tell me something, please use my twitter account and I’ll get back to you when I can.

 

  1. I guess that the solution of the “workshop problem” will eventually come with some new card more than from including workshop in the restricted (or banned) list. A RW card could really hate the artifact strategy, making the meta more lively.