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Expected Results: Which Set Should I Be Drafting?
Posted on April 19, 2013 by neuhier
The GTC boxplot is super depressing.
Also, if you plan on winning 1.5 packs per draft (the average), the EVs are AVR -4.5, RTR -4.7, GTC -5.05. So for most players, AVR will be the cheapest. The only problem is that this calculation does not factor in the cost of having to draft AVR….
Yeah, nice point with the average winning (playing swiss and winning 50% matches).
Concerning the prices of GTC: I guess this might change a bit as Dragonsmaze comes out.I will be observing the price changes after the next set comes out. Always wanted to see if this has a relevant influence on the prices of the current set.
I”m pretty sure this happens when each new set comes out – as less and less people are playing the older sets, the prices for their cards start to climb – especially those mythics and rares that prove their usefulness in standard. I used to dump all my cards right away when playing the pre-release and release events. Now I wish I still had the foil revelation I opened in one of those events.
Yeah that’s what I think, too.
But as a statistician i’ll have to check the numbers.
I will try to gather some data on this. I think it would be especially interesting if there is a real rise in prices and to be able to estimate how much the prices raise after a set gets older.
It’s becoming even more complex, when you try to model the prices over larger periods, including the time when the cards wheel out of standard.
Great article. I like the suggestion of tying in win percentage to the payout EV’s so we can see the result of getting prize in the form of AVR packs vs GTC packs – maybe something like expected EV per format vs win percentage? I’m super surprised by the result that GTC is actually the cheapest set to draft!
Thanks for the article, its an interesting attempt to analyze mathematically the ticket costs of playing in a limited tournament.
First off, everyone always analyzes the tournaments with the cost to enter, and packs won by all players as the primary indicators of expected value. But they do not take into consideration the chances to win prizes are actually quite dramatically different depending on which queue you enter. Since player-skill determines your win percentage (and it is almost never ~50%), if you are a decent magic player, but not at the top tier of players, you could consistently end up placing 3rd or 4th in an 8-4 draft, but rarely get the 1st or 2nd slot. Lowering the perceived value of this tournament dramatically (as your prize is, lets say – 90% of the time, 0 packs)
secondly, I would argue that a format such as phantom draft or phantom sealed is of the highest value to someone who is just looking to play games of magic on a limited playing field, as opposed to constructed play. – the prizes might not be spectacular, but the cost of the event compared to the amount of actual playtime is higher. (plus you dont have to spend time to try and trade away the cards you opened up at a decent/profitable exchange) – so the value is given in time spent playing magic, rather than in the prizes earned.
An important option to remember is doing the new “phantom” sealed queues – it’s 4$ to join, and if you win 2 matches you get a booster (win 3 matches and get 3 boosters for the full blowout). Thus, for something like 14$ you get to do a draft and 3 seald events, which I think is quite a lot of bang for buck. Granted you don’t get money for cards you open in the sealed phantom, but it’s best to think of it as paying *slightly* more in order to multiplay by 4 the amount of play you are getting. Highly worth it IMO.
Also, about the swiss/ 8-4 consideration – I ran the number once, and it’s only smarter to do 8-4 queues if you are able to win more than 50% of your matches. While that may sound good (“I’m a good player – of course I can taken more than half of the games!”), remember that the meaning of the above statistic is that half of the people playing in the 8-4 queues are making a mistake with their money – think long and hard to make sure you are not one of them!
Now you can re-do all the numbers to figure out the “new” 4-pack sealed – 4 pack of product and 2 tickets to join – payout of 5-3-1 for round wins – you keep the product.
These are a whole new ballgame, and strategy for GTC 4-pack sealed is interesting!
Another point to consider when playing swiss is that sometimes players drop, so some matches aren’t played out which lowers the overall prize payout.
For example, if 2 players quit before round 3 starts, there will one match less played and one booster less paid out.
@Original-pete, that’s actualy ireelevent. You shouldn’t care how many boosters are given away in total, you should care about how many boosters are given to YOU. and other players dropping can’t change that number, as long as you don’t drop either. And if your opponent drops? well, you get a guranteed booster…
@Carrot
Actually, that can be relevant depending on the number of players that drop. If two players drop and you are doing poorly, it’s possible you’ll get paired up against someone who has more wins than you, potentially causing you to lose a game you may have otherwise won.
First of all: Thanks for all that feedback.
I really didn’t think about phantom as an alternative. I always had a bad feeling when drafting phantom. Think it’s important for me to actually keep the cards. But I guess I’ll have to re-evaluate that aspect.
Second point: Did it ever happen to you, that 2 guys dropped? I rarely see even one person drop.
I’ve seen it happen a number of times, but it’s only affected me twice, one on either end.
One time it happened in a phantom draft, and I was paired up against the leader (his would-be opponent was one who dropped). I beat him, and no one went 3-0 and the pack payout was almost nothing.
The other time I was on the receiving end in a Swiss draft. I was doing relatively poorly, but was hoping to at least pick up a win in the final round to get a pack back as I currently sat 0-2. Two people dropped, pairing me up to someone who was 1-1, and he ended up beating me.
Not a frequent occurrence, but I did want to point out other people dropping can potentially affect your outcome.
@Original-pete, Carrot and Hercules.
ATM players dropping out are irrelevant to prices. If a player drops out another player will get a automatic victory and the prize structure will be the same.
Also. In swizz you play against those with similar points as you. You play 3 matches and you play opponents you have not played before. If you look at the structure you will see that an opponent is dropping will almost always be good for the other players.