Limited Resources: M14 Draft #5

Posted on August 30, 2013 by Limited Resources




You can follow Marshall on Twitter @Marshall_LR
or check out the Limited Resources podcast at lrcast.com

 

  1. Thanks for another interesting draft.

    I think you may have been a little too aggressive in some of your mulls. The 2 lander with three 6-drops in particular in M2G3. You were on the draw and this format is on the slow side. The spells you had (nightmare, corrupt) were the ones you basically HAVE to draw to win. yeah, starting with them in hand versus drawing them later reduces the breadth of your strategic choices in the early game, but you did have something to play in the meantime and he didn’t seem likely to steamroll you. It was like death by a thousand papercuts with those archaeomancers.

    Then again, I’m fighting the same losing battle with hindsight bias everyone else is.

  3. Those drafts happen. Where you are mulliganing the whole time and get screwed for mana. Not much can be done about.

  5. You the man Marshall!

    And of course, a gameplay question. M2G2 why not use the corrupt on the marauding maulhorn and hope for parity until you draw your swamp? What am I missing?

  6. NoTeef: You’re missing that he only had 5 land, and Corrupt (indeed, all three cards in his hand at the end) costs 6…

  7. stopped watching a couple of pick’s in. bad pick’s. Scrolled Down and Checked, and there was no round 3, no 3-0 = no watch, not pro.

  8. Samm, Marshall posts his matches rain or shine, and you know not an actual pro player. Would you prefer he just not post his match if he doesn’t win? Sam Black doesn’t win them all either . . .

  9. Samm, so you can’t learn from other’s mistakes or just to see how it plays out, heh? I think Marshall has proved he knows what he is doing. Kudos, Marshall, for being willing to put up a video where everything just doesn’t work out perfectly! In hindsight it is definitely easy to see what other picks in the draft could have led to – Kenji would have definitely p1p1 the Maulhorn, but that is his particular weakness/desire leading him down that path.

    The mono-colored strategies are interesting in M14, but I think each has a particular weakness which if paired up wrong you just sink almost immediately. The balance of having a quality 2-colored deck shines when you watch a lot of these mono-colored decks bowing out pretty early.

  11. That deck looked very much like a deck I played in a Swiss recently, it did about as well as Marshall’s deck did, but the better one I had lately was Black/Red sacrifice. 3 Acts of Treason, 2 Bairn’s, several other sacrifice outlets, my Acts were basically removal for anything, plus an attacks worth of damage.

    I’ve also had a lot of luck with BLANK/White. White is almost always wide open and it’s usually very easy to get some decent white cards to help out with almost any other kind of deck. I’ve personally found having a Fortify for the sideboard for slow games to be a huge swing card, and obviously a few pacifisms here and there help out a ton too.

    Great video, I love hearing Marshall’s opinions on cards, both the ones he’s playing and the ones he’s playing against. Which he considers threats, which just aren’t that big a deal and which he just needs dead immediately.

  12. Look back at the occasions where the minotaur appeared and note that if it would have been the 18th swamp all the problems disappeared. 18 lands made sense in a deck with three 6-drop bombs and two shades.

  13. Bagai beat me to it… a deck with two Corrupts, a Nightmare, and two Nightwing Shades is screaming for 18 lands. It’s almost impossible to get flooded with that deck.

  14. I know it’s free but it still feels like I’m paying to much to watch this. Not picking blightcaster pick 2 is just… your drafts are never ever fun to watch ! All those missed possibilities and then after a few mispicks going for monoblack… dude !

  15. Hi Marshall,

    With such a expensive spells I would for sure play 18 lands to make sure that you hit your land drops. Moreover, Nightmare, corrupt or these fliers 2/2 for 4B can help you use additional mana in case of mana flood – in this case I would prefer to be mana flooded that mana screwed.

  16. Nice Vid, like how you forced the mono black. During the deck construction portion I reminisced about Brian Wong stating how running 18 lands in decks that only benefit from drawing lands can be a good thing. This is one of those decks, with two Nightwing Shade and a Nightmare and Corrupt I don’t see how running 18 lands can be a bad thing. Having that one extra land in your deck just makes 20 percent of your deck that much better. Also mark of the vampire is a good card but I disciple your belief of how the risk isn’t worth the reward when it comes to high mana cost auras. This is just my opinion on the draft and no draft is perfect but something for others to muse on when deck building. Cheers!

  17. It’s “Minotaur is good at holding the fort” not “Minotaur is good at holding down the fort”, The fort isn’t trying to run away ;)

  18. “To hold down the fort” is, in fact, a perfectly correct English idiom. I’ve never heard the expression without the preposition, as in your phrasing, Azu, but it may well exist as well.

  20. Great video set. An exciting deck when it’s rolling. 18 lands is a good point but not one I would have considered. Reminds me to stay open to breaking the 23/17 setup.

    I’m also surprised you don’t like Blightcaster. Mark of the Vampire and Quag Sickness make him great, especially when the latter means a two for one. Certainly better with White in the mix, but it was shocking to see it disregarded so quickly.

  21. Hey Marshall,

    Thanks for these vids. Lots to learn in there for people who didn’t play in ages and are somewhat outdated, and/or don’t have much draft experience (my case for both :D)

    Also, as a non-MTGO player, that makes me really consider registering – the possibility of finding games/drafts anytime is huge, and regardless of what some people keep on saying ’bout the beta, I find that it really looks pretty handy & nice.

    Please go on with the nice vids and maybe see you around on MTGO somewhen, I’ll be sure to join the clan if I register there!

  22. thx for the vids, loving those monocolour strategies.

    but i really have to say, the result of the draft wasnt bad luck or a bad run. you drawed really well for a mull to 4. the mull to four shouldn have happened in the first place with 2 lands in mono and a two drop. you just force the loss. magic with its current startinghand/mulligan rule just punish badluck to the worst and you force it with that aggressive mulliganing. the % to not have 3 lands and good spells just grow starting with the first mulligan. sure you could get that manascrewed with your starting hand, but would have had a two drop in play and a higher persentag to draw spells and lands due to the fact you had the high manacost cards in hand additional to the good cards playable from turn two on. be more carefull with mulligangs.

    in regard to sam mctravesh:

    dont replay to trolls people. nobody needs to defend himself or get defense from followers for such naive ignorance. nuff said.

  24. Loved the deck, Marshall – shame about the mull to 4.

    In Azu’s defence, he’s correct. “Hold down the fort” is just an Americanism of the original military phrase “hold the fort”. There’s no reason to put “down” in there, it doesn’t make any literal sense, but people persist on saying it, so it somehow worked its way into American English as an accepted idiom. Just like how some Americans say “I could care less”, when they mean “I couldn’t care less” – makes no sense at all.

    David Mitchell expounds on this point rather well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om7O0MFkmpw

  25. Why did you keep taking off-color cards over Artificer’s Hex in the last few picks? It’s a fine sideboard card against Fireshrieker.

  26. Hello, you are a skilled drafter and i enjoy watching. In your second match game three, you mulliganed down to 4 cards. In your opening hand on the draw (which implies a starting hand of 7 known cards and 1 random) you had a relevant turn 2, and turn 3 play with 2 lands, as well as an unbeatable endgame, the probability of your first 3 draws yielding 1 land card for your turn three is 92.2% the probability of drawing 2 lands or more in your first three draws is 65.3%. The improper mulligan is an error made by every magic player. in your 3 land cockatrice hand, the probability actually begins to literally stack against you, even though your known cards ay be playable the probability of drawing dead increases in an exponential fashion as lines of play dwindle with less cards so do the odds od drawing into those lines of play

  28. In one of the later packs, you were talking about splashing Opportunity, but the pack also had an Act of Treason. Since you already had 4 or 5 Blood Bairns, maybe that is the correct splash?

    I also disagree about the Blightcaster. I know you dislike auras more than most, but in this set three very playable removal spells – Quag Sickness, Sensory Dep and Pacifism – all generally 2-for-1 with Blightcaster. I agree that he is not a really high pick, but you were talking about heavy black at that point and Blightcaster was better than anything else in that pack for a heavy black deck.

    Another question: why not take the Altar’s Reap late? You passed Pacifism, a couple Shocks and some Sensory Depredations, and had a Tenacious Dead. Isn’t the card draw worth considering? Sure, most of that stuff could be fed to the Blood Bairns, but sometimes the Blood Bairn is the creature with the Pacifism.

    Finally, I have to +1 the comments on 18th land over the Minotaur. And the comments saying thanks for the videos.

  29. Interesting line of play came up in round 2.

    We are at 4 life with Corpse Hauler in play, 5 lands, with a hand of Quag Sickness, Corrupt, Nightmare, and Abomination. Our opponent has Maulhorn and Warden. You Sickness the Warden to clear the skies, which has merit. But if we Sickness the Maulhorn instead of Warden, we beat a Disperse or a Time Ebb (and maybe something else I’m forgetting) if we draw the sixth land, where we lose to both Disperse and Time Ebb immediately by removing the Warden. I can only think of auras beating us with that play, in addition to the spells which would beat us in either line. My line assumes we are 100% to Corrupt on land six.

    The additional value of your line is that ignoring removal gives you the option to play things like Accursed Spirit off the top to trade with the ‘must attacker’, or some other card off the top- in essence giving you more outs in the games where our opponent is not holding or topdecking removal. It’s like a gamble for tempo, where you get to hold onto your Corrupt basically ensuring you victory if you dodge removal. In my line we can still lose after blowing the Corrupt and it’s going to be a nail-biter at 8 life and loss of tempo.

    I’m not sure which line is better, but it’s very interesting to consider.

    Thanks for the vids again Marshall!

  30. A bunch of commenters noted on the turn with the quag sickness vs warden, but I actually thought the misplay was a turn earlier- you’d already planned on blocking the maulhorn with the accursed spirit once before, you’re at 11 facing 7 damage on board. Not sacking the corpse hauler with the liturgy mana was a tempo mistake you couldn’t afford. You were already behind and needed to spend your mana as efficiently as possible.

    The *only* reason to block then sack is to get extra value by preventing some damage. Sacking a turn earlier either prevents 5 damage by trading accursed spirit with maulhorn, which is *all* the damage you prevent by block/sacking, or draws out a removal spell (maybe the flames of the firebrand that finishes the game, though that’s a bit results-oriented). They only had 1 card in hand + 1 draw step to get that removal, too.

    Finally, if you look at the possible draws, the most likely was land, which you use to cast corrupt (life total is now reasonably secure), or a 3 drop, which you have to choose between it and sacking corpse hauler. Heck, a 4 drop cockatrice would’ve forced the same choice, and I think you’d rather have that in play and maulhorn dead vs. a block/sack with the corpsehauler into the accursed spirit to trade with the maulhorn a turn later. In fact, the only time not sacking it makes sense is if you assume you’re drawing a 1,2,5 or 6 drop (and the latter of those two, you’re screwed anyways).

    The lack of consideration for blightcaster early on is also a bit perplexing- m14 is very much enchantment heavy, and blightcaster quite often pulls its weight. Even if it removes only 1 creature it’s already a shock+2/2 body for 4, quite reasonable.

  31. DRAFT:

    Picking Rootwalla over Blightcaster pick 2 after pick 1 nightmare is SO STUPIDDDD (this part is hindsight, but you will notice that you also passed an Ajani’s Chosen, multiple Auramancers, Blessing, Pacifism, Path of Bravery, and a few Favors…even an Accord if you wanted to be SUPER baller). I’ve never seen someone so set up to go B/W enchantments.

    You were headstrong on mono-black WAY too early. You can play Nightmare, Corrupt, and Quag in a two color deck that’s heavy in black. You did get lucky in pack 3 with all the black cards, but before then, you had zilch, and they would have made it into your deck anyway.

    Advantages to Blightcaster Pick 2
    -Stay in black
    -Still a 2/3 for 3B
    -If you play at least one enchantment spell, it doubles as removal
    -If you play at least one enchantment spell, it will be a magnet for opponent removal
    -No one says you have to keep it in if you get no complimentary cards.

    THE GAMES:

    Your opponent match 1 was borderline retarded. So much terrible blue control and no creatures.

    Match 2

    Each of you got mana screwed a game. Against a deck with that much removal, I would have taken out Mark of the Vampire. But I would say that Izzet Control is your deck’s weakness.