Quiet Speculation: Doubling Season

Welcome to 2010. There are no flying cars, no robots that bend steel girders, binge drink, and swear excessively, and worst of all, you still can’t qualify for the Pro Tour through Magic Online. Wait, yes you can, and this past weekend, two people DID! Truly taking a leap into the future, Magic Online qualified people for the Pro Tour on the second day of January, 2010. As predicted, this drove the prices of Extended cards through the roof in the days before the qualifiers, so we have a lot to cover.

Looking back to my previous piece, we have a few small victories to celebrate. Despite the fact that I thought it “unreasonable” for Vendilion Clique to breach the $5 mark, it did so, and in grand fashion. If you took the advice to snap up Cliques around $2-3, you made some serious money. Currently, Vendilion Clique is selling for around $10. As I said last time, we don’t really have a precedent that will help us understand the demand a PTQ will create, and thus, we saw many cards surge well past their projected prices. Despite being technically “wrong” about it not passing $5, I’ll take a 300-400% profit alongside the delicious slice of ‘crow I’ll have to eat.

Other staples like Chrome Mox, Engineered Explosives, Hallowed Fountain, and Chalice of the Void all saw massive surges. They weren’t recommended as buys due to their already high price tag, which somewhat limits their growth potential. Frankly, seeing the most in-demand Ravnica land shoot past $20 surprised everyone, but the extreme jumps of these already-expensive cards demonstrates just how high PTQ demand can be. Cryptic Command had a good run as well. It’s up 50% since the last article, which is lower than the optimal double-up, but good profit nonetheless. They may still have more room to grow, but feel free to sell off enough of your Cryptics to cover costs if you need to free up some tickets. It’s generally a good idea to take some profits without cashing out your entire investment, just to guarantee that you’re not missing new deals or losing money. Gifts Ungiven also doubled, going from $2 to above $4. The only card that didn’t move much during the last two weeks was Meddling Mage, which stayed mostly dormant. We could still see a run on Mages as the season evolves, do don’t go jumping out of windows and calling for the End of Days just yet. Don’t sell them unless you’re extremely hard-up for tickets.

Looking ahead to the next PTQs, we should refer to the Top 8 lists that have been published. There were a few stock lists that give their pilots the chance to compete for ultimate glory, but there were also some rogue lists and some forgotten heroes that made the cut after the Swiss rounds. Deftly dodging the non-existent artifact hate, Affinity reclaimed its throne for the next, oh, thirty seconds. There aren’t too many implications here, because Arcbound Ravager and Kataki, Wars Wage are both fairly expensive cards. Master of Etherium is the best play here, since he’s only $1 and very important to the deck. It’s also interesting to note that many places are running low on the card, so be prepared for at least a mild price spike.

The second place list is a fairly unexciting Bant list, which will just prop up the prices of its cards further. There really are no plays here. The third place list has far more interesting cards, including two copies of the Demon-Dragon Malfegor in the sideboard. At first glance, it seems random, but it appears that the deck’s designer was hoping to “live the dream” and pitch it to a Hypergenesis. Whether this is brilliant tech or the machinations of a madman, only time will tell, but Malfegor is a $1 Mythic Rare, so getting a couple to stuff under the mattress is probably a fine idea. The deck also runs two copies of Slaughter Pact, ostensibly to help in the mirror match and set up a game-winning alpha strike. This is yet another $1 card, but unless it sees a lot of play, it will stay around there. If the community embraces the technology, it might double to $2 but it seems unlikely.

Rounding out the semifinalists, Death Cloud Rock made an appearance. It’s eponymous Darksteel rare is sitting at a reasonable $1.50, but unless the deck really takes off, it should stay at its current price. Of note are the $0.60 Primal Commands in the deck, which give the list an incredible set of tools for only 5 mana. Given that the deck ramps its mana somewhat aggressively, 5 mana for such a versatile card is a bargain. Since it’s only being used in the Death Cloud list, it might not go anywhere, but it’s a card to keep on the radar.

The quarterfinals included two Dark Depths decks, a Tezzerator deck, and something that looks like it crawled, bleeding, from the Anything Goes room. King Feeble’s deck includes four copies of Kitchen Finks – yet no Oran-Rief, the Vastwood. It plays a single copy of Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. It plays Sedge Sliver. Yes, the sliver that turns itself and its brethren into Sedge Trolls. It also includes Bob Maher’s iconic Dark Confidant and Tidehollow Sculler, rounding out a thoroughly unimpressive package of modestly-costed midrange beaters. This is the kind of deck that your playtesting partner builds as the sun is coming up and claims it “attacks the metagame orthogonally.” Then you slap him.

Suspending disbelief for a moment, there’s actually a hint of genius in this madman’s brew. The mildly amusing creatures are backed up by elite burn spells, disruption, and some mana acceleration. The 8 discard effects help beat decks like Scapeshift and Hypergenesis. The burn helps you combat other aggressive decks. Dark Confidant keeps your threat density high while maintaining board position, and Umezawas Jitte does evil things to other beatdown decks. The real genius is the sliver package. Sinew Sliver is mediocre even in multiples, but Sedge Sliver is an absolute bomb against other aggressive decks. He’s a $0.15 card right now, so three full playsets will cost you as much as one of those 6-card booster packs at Wal-Mart. It’s a speculative buy, but you could really catch lightning in a bottle here. The deck is sufficiently out-there, which lends to it a certain appeal. Don’t be surprised to see other sliver decks spin off this one.

I’d like to wrap up this week by taking a look at a few cards that I consider to be very speculative plays. These are not for those on a strict budget or those averse to risk, but they represent speculations I’ve made based on observation and information I’ve received from around the internet.

Bloodchief Ascension – While a deck list has not been published yet, Adrian Sullivan supposedly reached the semifinals of the PTQ in Minneapolis this past weekend with a deck packing this card, Isochron Scepter and a whole lot of burn. Bloodchief Ascension has favorable synergy with opposing shock lands, and is trading well under a dollar right now. A brand-name writer with a popular yet inexpensive card top 8′ing a PTQ with burn is usually a recipe for massive hype, and hype sells cards. The indicators that this card is going to jump are already showing.

Elvish Archdruid – He’s a natural combo with the newly spoiled Joraga Warcaller, and Elves are always very popular. He’s $1 at the moment, but since M10 isn’t being opened all too often, he could see a rise in price if an Elf deck is handed to us in Worldwake. Nissa Revane might follow suit, but she is already $5.50. If the deck posts a high finish at a 5K again, expect a similar run.

Hive Mind – This one is really speculative, but the card is so obscenely cheap I feel obliged to share. I’ve heard a lot of people losing to the Hive Mind/Pact decks in Extended, and if that deck even gets a hint of publicity, $0.15 could turn into $0.50. No, it’s not big money. No, it’s not destined for wealth and greatness. Yes, you could by a free draft by swinging a quick profit.

Living End – While I’m not at liberty to share the deck list yet, a deck using this card, cascade, and a lot of black cyclers barely missed the cut at the Seattle PTQ. Living End is in the same boat as Hive Mind. Very inexpensive, very powerful, and just waiting for a bit of hype to send its price into the realm of real rares again.

Remember, those are all very speculative plays! Bloodchief Ascension is probably the safest, since multiple people have confirmed that Adrian was in fact playing the card and did in fact reach the semifinals. The rest is just speculation right now. It’s going to be an exciting season, since it seems Extended is wide open. Keep an eye on the Marketplace and keep reading MTGO Academy to stay on top of the ever-changing metagame.

See you all in two weeks!

Kelly

Disclaimer and Disclosure: Kelly Reid nor MTGO Academy make any warranty or guarantee that any given asset, digital or otherwise, will appreciate in value. While the author will make a good faith effort to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of information, the unpredictable nature of the MTG Online market means that we cannot guarantee any predictions of price changes. In the interest of full disclosure, be aware that the author may own one or multiple copies of cards recommended for purchase in his articles. All assets are evaluated on their own merits and neither the author’s nor MTGO Academy’s ownership of these assets are considered when making recommendations.