Quiet Speculation: Money Matters

Posted on July 9, 2010 by Kelly Reid

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  1. Nice insight into so card price goings on.
    I can’t wait to see what kind of effect M11 is going to have on the economy.

  2. I’m sure if Stephen did play Magic, he’d play a Red-White-Blue plainswalkers deck (America Control) and Mono-White (defense of the holy) =()

  3. Whoa…this quote right here: ‘If we look at former Standard staples that rotated into Extended, they lost approximately half their value upon leaving the format. Since Extended is now 4 blocks and 2 core sets deep, as compared to the previous 7 blocks and 3 core sets deep. That means the pool is 40% more shallow, so we can expect an approximately proportional change in price. If we take Cryptic Command, which dropped from ~$20 to ~$10, and add back in 40% of the lost value, we’ll get a better idea of where Cryptic ought to be.”

    Why would we use the number of cards in the cardpool as any kind of indication of the price of the card? This is actually the most redic. thing I have ever read when it comes to people guessing value of cards.

    Also saying that a profitable trade can not be “Correct” some times is always the wrong way to view trading/dealing. Anytime you make a profit you have done something “correct” and can never be viewed as anything else. The fact if you held longer you could have made more can also be counter-pointed with the idea that you could have lost money.

    The point between $95-$100 is common knowledge, and this is why something costs $9.99 instead of $10.00

    In general, I don’t think this article was very good at all and in fact had more false notions then correct ones.

  4. Stu, your comment re: profitability is absurd, particularly in the reality of imperfect markets in which you can’t necessarily quickly re-acquire an unlimited quantity of a commodity after selling it.

  5. Seraph: I actually think that your comment is above absurd. Isn’t it completely possible to re-acquire unlimited quantity of a commodity in this current internet age? If I sell 100x Murmuring Bosk online for 2 tix apiece, I can easily rebuy those 100 in a short matter of time. In fact, I always sells cards out of my personal collection because I know I can always get them again at whatever price I want eventually. I don’t have a store front and I even know I can rebuy these cards. Cards will come back again, always.

  6. @Stu55 I think you vastly overestimate your economic knowledge and skills. I have been following the author of this article for a long time now and can tell you that he knows what he is talking about. You obviously don’t. “..I can always get them again at whatever price I want eventually.” What? Where did you take your economy classes? Also your notion that a shrinking card pool has no influence on card prices in the pool is disproved by past rotations many times over. I would suggest YOU do your homework before blurting out your uneducated opinion.

    Take care,

    David

  7. I suggest everyone calms down a bit and discusses the issue at hand with sound reasoning and without getting aggressive.
    If an argument is wrong it makes sense to supply evidence to support another thesis.

  8. Stu, please go through 10 or 20 of the top Lorwyn/Shadowmoor rares, complete with historical data, and show me that my rough math is incorrect. I”ll be happy to admit an error if you find one. Based on my observation, this is a correct way to -estimate- the way rotation will effect value.

    Card pool depth GREATLY effects the value of cards. This is its own article, but I’ll just point to Block Constructed Pro Tours and the value of certain cards on-site. I’m confident my estimation method is accurate to a point that it’s useful to people.

    If you just want to troll articles, please attempt to make sense.

    A trade can be correct or incorrect. Focusing on profit margins is results-oriented thinking and will limit your ability to maximize profits. In the Bosk trade, I had multiple legitimate reasons to hold them longer, many of which I described above, but due to “the fear”, I sold. For the reasons described, the trade was profitable and “incorrect”. If you really think you have an idea what you’re talking about, write a counter-argument and I’ll edit it and run it on the front page of DoublingSeason.com. I’m never afraid to be proven wrong.

  9. David: I am not even going to give you a response. I am just going to go say ask the people at Troll and Toad or EmpireCardsOnline or anyone at Magictraders, they will all tell you that I know what I am talking about and there have been numerous times I have backed it up.

    KBR: I am not just trolling. Medina knows me and ask him if I know what I am talking about. Get my AIM name or E-mail from him and we can talk more about a counter-argument article.

  10. Just supply data and evidence that contradicts my thesis, and that’ll do. Either you write it or you don’t. Get in touch with me if you do.

  13. It seems there’s a predictable and common decline in value between when a set goes up for pre-orders and when it stabilizes.

    Does this only apply to cards in real life, or do the MTGO cards get affected by this as well? Sometimes the card prices differ vastly between online and paper cards. Any tips on predicting which ones will be worth picking up?

  14. Just to clarify, I am positing that the depth of a format, defined by the number of rares avail. to players building for said format, will have an effect on the pricing of the rares therein.

    When a format’s depth changes, as Extended did, there will be price movements. It would be profitable to understnad the forces that effect those prices. Remember, no one has won a nobel prize for economics by charting the entire MTG economy, so we’re all just in Best Guess Land. I haven’t the time, sadly, to crunch hundreds of numbers, but my theories generally have some support behind them. Thus, others who wish to attempt to prove or disprove them are welcome, because either way I learn more about how the market works.

    There’s really no need to sling any accusations at my qualifications. They speak for themselves. I treat the process of fully understanding these markets much the same way that a scientist researches a problem. Until there’s tons of data supporting the theory, it’s just a theory. Rather than guess at prices, I’d like to know exactly how a rotation tends to influence prices, and when. Just some things to consider before you start wondering “who writes this crap”.

  15. I wish I would have thought of buying cards when they rumored ore even reveled the new extended format. 186% is still one heck of a deal.